Gaming: Mountain West mediocre outside of league play
NCAA Football Betting Lines
07/30/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Mountain West's non-conference straight-up records point in a favorable direction at 41-28 over the last two years, but don't be so quick in jumping to the windows to wager on the league against outside competition. The nine teams are an even 34-34-1 against the spread in out-of-conference play since 2008, finishing at .500 both seasons.
There is one way to cash in on the MWC and that's through league play, but you have to pick your spots because favorites are only 57-50-1 (a 53% winning percentage) over the last three seasons. However, the divide between the upper- echelon clubs and the usual bottom-feeders is staggering.
Utah, TCU, BYU and Air Force are an amazing 46-28 (62%) when favored since '07, while the other five clubs are a combined 11-22-1 (34%) as the betting choice. Surprisingly, Air Force leads the way at 9-3 ATS while San Diego State has yet to post a victory at 0-2.
Time now to take a team-by-team look at the league with predicted SU overall and conference records for those wagering on over/unders for total victories.
9) NEW MEXICO - The Lobos went 5-7 ATS last season, but finished the year covering their final three games. They have only one above-.500 ATS season in non-conference play since '04.
Offense - The change to the no-huddle offense last year produced a 57-43 pass- run ratio, a massive difference from the 65-35 run-pass numbers from '08. Even with the modified offense, not a single receiver caught 40 passes. In addition, the offensive line allowed 41 sacks. Don't expect many improvements in 2010 with just five returning starters.
Defense - New Mexico finished 113th nationally in scoring, allowing 36 points per game, but that was with just one career start from its defensive line heading into the season. Look for a slight upgrade as the defense is now in the second year of the new system.
Prediction - The Lobos will still suffer growing pains, especially with a new starting quarterback, so it's doubtful their ATS run at the end of last year will carry into this season. (1-11, 1-7)
8) WYOMING - The Cowboys were 9-3 ATS in '09, a massive turnaround after going 4-18-1 the previous two seasons. They are 15-7 ATS in non-conference play over the last six years.
Offense - The offense did not take off as expected under head coach Dave Christensen, finishing 109th nationally in scoring. Moreover, the Cowboys averaged just 4.4 yards per play, an even lower number than the previous season when they were last in scoring. The offense also failed to impress this past spring, so it is best to temper all enthusiasm heading into the fall.
Defense - Last year's defense gave up an average of 63 more yards per game than the year before. Furthermore, the unit allowed opposing league squads just short of five trips per game inside the red zone. A switch to a 4-3 defense could help, but don't count on it.
Prediction - Given all their negative numbers from a season ago, it was a wonder the Cowboys finished 7-6. Don't forget, they were 6-0 in games decided by a touchdown or less. Expect a regression both SU and ATS. (3-9, 2-6)
7) UNLV - The Rebels went 3-8 ATS last year. They are 5-15-1 ATS as road underdogs over the last five years.
Offense - New head coach Bobby Hauck will try to mold an experienced offense to greater heights after the unit ranked 77th nationally in scoring. There is plenty of raw talent to work with so look for increased production
Defense - This is the area UNLV needs to improve in order to reach its first bowl game in 10 years. Only five teams in the entire country allowed more total yards than the Rebels number of 456 per game. Expect slight improvement under new defensive coordinator Kraig Paulson.
Prediction - Since 2003, the Rebels have recorded just one victory over teams with winning records. Nonetheless, the losing mentality could very well evaporate under new leadership so monitor the club's progress early on. (3-10, 2-6)
6) COLORADO STATE - The Rams were 3-8 ATS last year, 0-6 in their final six games. They are 6-1 ATS as home underdogs, but 1-6 as road dogs over the last two years.
Offense - Colorado State entered last season with the most experienced offensive line in the country. Unfortunately, four starters have since departed, leaving the unit with just 30 career starts. There is some hope, however, as former UCLA running back Raymond Carter dominated in the spring and the Rams' quarterback play can't be any worse than it was in '09.
Defense - Last year's defense was extremely weak allowing 30 ppg. Moreover, the unit was dead last nationally in third-down situations. However, 11 of the top 13 tacklers return after only five of the top 12 came back last season. In addition, linebacker Ricky Brewer returns after missing all of '09. Colorado State will have one of the most improved defenses in the country.
Prediction - The Rams underachieved last year against the spread. This season they will overachieve. (4-8, 3-5)
5) SAN DIEGO STATE - The Aztecs finished 4-6-1 ATS last season. They are 2-8 ATS off a SU win over the last four years.
Offense - San Diego State's offense did not progress as expected last season (23 ppg from 19) but the Aztecs still jumped from last place to the fourth spot in total offense in MWC play. And that was without star wide receiver Vincent Brown, who missed the last five games due to injury. Look for the offense to have its highest scoring average since 1996.
Defense - Former New Mexico head coach Rocky Long took over the defense last season and the results were positive. The Aztecs allowed 30.5 ppg after giving up 37 the year before, and opposing league quarterbacks were held to a 59% completion rate compared to the 69% given up in '08. However, they lose four of their fop five tacklers, which could prevent a quick start to the season.
Prediction - Bet against San Diego State at New Mexico State on Sept. 11. (5-7, 3-5)
4) BYU - The Cougars went 7-6 ATS last year. They are 0-3 ATS as road underdogs over the last three years.
Offense - Freshman quarterback Jake Heaps should be the next great BYU signal- caller, but it's doubtful he'll duplicate the numbers Max Hall compiled last season. In addition, he won't have three-time 1,000-yard rusher Harvey Unga backing him up, as the running back is off to the NFL.
Defense - BYU returns only 56% of its defensive lettermen, the lowest total since '04 when the unit allowed 27 ppg. Moreover, the Cougars will be without Jan Jorgensen, the MWC's all-time sack and tackles for loss leader.
Prediction - This will be a tough year to make money betting on BYU. (7-5, 5-3)
3) UTAH - The Utes finished 6-7 ATS last season, but went 3-0 to end the year. They are 6-0 ATS as home underdogs since 1997.
Offense - Only four starters returned last season and the offense still averaged 30 ppg. The key to Utah's success was its play inside the red zone. The Utes were number one in league play inside the opponents' 20-yard line with 26 scores in 29 opportunities. This season, eight starters come back, so another top offensive campaign should be on its way.
Defense - The Utes allowed 24 ppg back in '05 (highest total since 1996) partly because only four starters returned. Nevertheless, they did bring back five of the top eight leading tacklers. This season, seven starters have departed, and to make matters worse that group includes the top four tacklers.
Prediction - Play the over in most of Utah's games, especially in week two when UNLV comes to town. (9-3, 6-2)
2) AIR FORCE - The Falcons were 7-5 ATS in '09, 5-1 in their final six games. They are 5-1 as road favorites over the last three seasons.
Offense - Air Force returns 100% of its rushing and passing totals from last year but the offensive line loses all five starters. However, the Falcons have fared well during years in which they've possessed an inexperienced line. For example, back in '04, the unit returned seven career starts while breaking in a freshman quarterback and the club still averaged 277 ypg on 4.7 ypc.
Defense - Air Force ranked 10th nationally in scoring defense and 11th in total defense last season. Only six starters return but that shouldn't be any cause for concern, as the club has lost five starters (or more) every year since 1992.
Prediction - The Falcons have been one of the most consistent ATS teams in the country the last three years at 23-13 so look for another solid season. (9-3, 6-2)
1) TCU - The Horned Frogs went 8-4 ATS last season. They are an incredible 18-6 as home favorites over the last five years.
Offense - When people think of TCU, they immediately think defense. However, the Frogs finished fifth nationally in scoring and seventh in total offense. This side of the ball loses only two starters so look for another outstanding offensive season.
Defense - Last year's defense returned just four starters with nine players making their first career start. All the unit did was finish number one in the nation allowing 240 yards per game. This year, the club loses its top lineman, linebacker and both starting cornerbacks but those losses shouldn't stop the "D" from another remarkable campaign.
Prediction - The MWC champ has gone undefeated SU in league play each of the last six years. Expect number seven to come this season. TCU will also roll to a 6-2 ATS conference mark for the third straight season. (12-0, 8-0)
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The NFL preseason is approaching. Time for players, coaches and teams to turn over a new leaf. General managers have hired some new coaches, while coaches have added some offensive and defensive assistants to try and improve things. Here’s a look at some changes to look for in the preseason.
New York Jets: The Jets were one of the surprise teams in the NFL last season, making the playoffs under hard-driving first-year coach Eric Mangini. Mangini rebuilt the offensive line with rookies D'Brickashaw Ferguson (the No. 4 pick in the 2007 Draft) and Ohio State center (the 29th pick in the first round). This season he upgraded the defense with rookie linebacker David Harris (Michigan) while the secondary picked up a much needed top-notch corner in Pitt CB Darrelle Revis (No. 14 overall).
The Jets have added balance to the offense for QB Chad Pennington with RB Thomas Jones, essentially stolen from the Bears. He will upgrade a New York ground game that was 20th in rushing with a weak 3.5 yards per carry. They have their first true feature back since Curtis Martin. Offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer prefers ball control, like his father Marty. In preseason, behind Pennington you’ll see second-year QB Kellen Clemens and mobile newcomer QB Marques Tuiasosopo.
Jacksonville Jaguars: The heat is on Jack Del Rio in Jacksonville as the Jaguars flopped last season despite a ton of talent. Keep in mind that under Del Rio the Jaguars have been outstanding in preseason with a 12-4 SU, 11-5 ATS August mark. online football betting Their defense is loaded, it’s the offense that has been stuck in first gear the last few years.
Enter a new offensive coordinator in Dirk Koetter, the former Boise State and Arizona State pass-happy coach. He will try and upgrade a passing game that ranked 24th last season. Del Rio has criticized wide receivers and Matt Jones this summer, both of whom have battled injuries. It will be interesting to watch the “new” Jaguars passing game in preseason.
Arizona Cardinals: Word out of Arizona is that the players like new coach Ken Whisenhunt, who was the Steelers offensive coordinator last year. We think of Arizona as all-passing because their running game has been awful of late because of a poor offensive line. However, keep an eye on the running game in preseason as they’ve made a lot of changes.
The new coach brings in Russ Grimm to coach the offensive line (Grimm did a marvelous job building the Steelers line). They took Penn State OT Levi Jones in the first round and signed two offensive linemen, Mike Gandy and Al Johnson, to provide depth. Reggie Wells was moved from right tackle to left guard and they want more speed out of the offensive line for pulling and traps, a Pittsburgh staple under Bill Cowher.
Atlanta Falcons: While all the attention has been focused on QB Mike Vick’s off-field problems, new coach Bobby Petrino is revamping the Falcons from an all-running team to a more balanced one. Petrino likes the experience of backup QB Joey Harrington and he has veteran backup Chris Redman, who used to play for Petrino at Louisville and knows his offenses better than anyone. Petrino wants Vick to be more of a pocket passer.
The addition of FB Ovie Mughelli is a sign Petrino wants a power rushing attack behind a physical fullback and newcomer WR Joe Horn should upgrade what was a below average wideout corps. Petrino is changing their old zone-blocking scheme to a more traditional in-line blocking scheme and the offensive line is bigger. Rookie DE Jamaal Anderson was grabbed in the first round and the secondary got younger with former Auburn cornerback David Irons, who the Falcons think was a steal as a sixth-round pick.
Cleveland Browns: The 2007 Browns look like a double-edged sword. There was the excitement of the offseason, trading for RB Jamel Lewis, upgrading the offensive line with Wisconsin’s Joe Thomas (the No. 2 pick in the draft) and free agent LG Eric Steinbach, then trading for Notre Dame QB Brady Quinn when he fell to No. 22. GM Phil Savage and head coach Romeo Crennel feel they have a talented, balanced offense with these new pieces, plus TE >Kellen Winslow and WR Braylon Edwards.
However, were these moves made in desperation? And were they foolish ones? The Browns gave up their 2008 first-round pick for Quinn and we all know QBs take time to develop. And even first-round QBs can be busts (Joey Harrington, Akili Smith). We also don’t know if the offensive line is that much improved (31st in rushing in 2007) and they did nothing to improve a defense that was awful against the run (142 yds pg allowed).
The Browns have a new offensive coordinator in Rob Chudzinski. This is a young offense and Quinn looked tentative, indecisive and inaccurate early in camp. Crennel will play Charlie Frye, Quinn and Derek Anderson in preseason. And there is a mixed bag for rookie QBs receiving significant starts: Tim Couch (14), Kerry Collins (13), Ben Roethlisberger (13), Vince Young (13), Joey Harrington (12), Matt Leinart (11) and Kyle Boller (nine). While all the focus will be on the Browns new-look offense, I’m more concerned with the defense.
Carolina Panthers: Coach Jon Fox loves the ground game, but Carolina has made some interesting changes for 2007. Fox fired offensive coordinator Dan Henning and brings in Jeff Davidson to run the offense. Davidson has brought in zone-blocking schemes to the Panther offense, a dramatic change for a system that's been built around a power-running style.
In zone-blocking, offensive linemen are responsible for blocking any defender who appears in their zone, instead of focusing on one defender. The Broncos and Falcons have had success with the system, which features smaller, more athletic offensive linemen and can create running lanes on the inside and outside. Keep an eye in preseason on how Carolina adjusts as it will take time to learn the system. Fox has been one of the top coaches in preseason, with a 15-5 SU, 12-7-1 ATS August record.
Dallas Cowboys: WR Terrell Owens is still here, but QB Drew Bledsoe and Bill Parcells are gone. New head coach Wade Phillips takes over, replacing Parcells. He ran the Chargers defense last season. Phillips was chosen by teary-eyed owner Jerry Jones partly because he is one of the best 3-4 coaches in football and the Cowboys have loaded up on players for that scheme.
Remember that Phillips was blitz-happy with the Chargers last season and early reports out of the Dallas camp have mentioned how the Cowboys have been blitzing a lot, a departure from Parcells. The theme of the 2007 Dallas defense appears to be one of attack.
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SPORTS BETTING - Tennis is an underrated and under-utilized bettors' sport.
Ten years ago, at just about this time, I called Alan Boston in Vegas and left him a voicemail that went something like this (abridged version): "Hey Alan, Chad Millman from ESPN The Magazine calling. I want to do a book about wise guys, you in?"
A couple weeks later I got a message back (abridged version): "I don't know, maybe," Boston said. "Call me and we'll talk about it. But not later today. I got $1,000 on Andre Agassi to win the French Open at 40-1, and he's in the finals."
Here's what happened next (abridged version): Agassi won his tourney. Boston won his $40,000. I wrote sportsbook.
In the ten years since, how much has been wagered on the big-time tennis events? Put it this way: The Nevada Gaming Commission doesn't even track the number year by year because it's so small.
"Tennis makes up about one-tenth of one percent of our take," says Lucky's bookmaking boss Jimmy Vaccaro. "The last big golf major we probably had $100,000 worth of bets. In tennis, we might have written two big tickets."
Tennis' lack of popularity amongst the American bettoratti is no surprise, really. For starters, the biggest sports betting holidays -- the Super Bowl, the NCAA tourney -- are must see TV. People, at least the degenerates I know, plan vacations around watching those events in Vegas sports books.
But Wimbledon? Doesn't exactly reel in the whales. "Seriously, it's the nuts as an event," says Boston. "But who even knows when it's on?"
Here's another reason that helps explain why golf gets traction, something I call "The Bubbe Theory." My Bubbe is pushing 95 and has cataracts so bad that, to her, even the most crystalline Chicago day is mostly cloudy. But she still listens to the Cubs games, and she still calls me in a fit if she disagrees with something Rick Telander writes in the Chicago Sun Times. She's a sports fan. If she doesn't know you, you're just filling a niche. And niche players, even historically good ones like Roger and Raf, don't drive betting volume. Only the highest profile names attract square money, which inflates wagering totals like a shot of saline to the lips. Bubbe, and the public, loved Agassi, tennis' last cross-the-rubicon, mainstream draw. She also has a crush on Tiger. She's given me standing orders to put a sawbuck on the big cat whenever I walk through a sports book (or mistakenly tap into one via my Internet machine.) That explains why the Masters is getting $100K in action at some books while the four tennis majors might not get that combined this year.
This isn't a case of tennis being a difficult sport to bet. In fact, in Europe, it's probably the second most popular sport for gambling after soccer. Granted, as the WSJ football betting last week and The Mag's Shaun Assael examined in even greater depth last year, that might be because gamblers across the pond see it as an easy game to fix. But it could also be because, over there it holds the kind of sway the big two do over here.
Street corners in Spain are peppered with public courts and kids doing their best Raffy impressions. In some war torn parts of Eastern Europe poverty-stricken kids view tennis as an escape route, like football or basketball here. A couple years ago The Mag's Lindsay Berra wrote a great piece about Belgrade's Jelena Jankovic, Ana Ivanovic and Novak Djokovic. They learned the game as kids while bombs were raining down on their homeland. They practiced in drained swimming pools. Not exactly Nick Bolletierri conditions.
In the United States, casual fans think tennis is played four times a year. But on the tightly packed European continent, national interest in homegrown talent runs deep every weekend. Of the ATP's current top 20 players, only two, tennis betting and James Blake, are American. Fourteen are from Europe, representing six different countries.
No wonder fans from Lisbon to Bhudapest get jacked up for the net game, whether it's Wimbledon or a low-level tourney like the Estoril Open in Portugal (congrats to Spain's Albert Montanes for winning that one, btw). Chances are good that someone representing their flag will not only be playing, but have a shot at winning.
And that's all any bettor can ask for.
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